CYBER INSURANCE MARKET UPDATE Q4 2026
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Key takeaways
1. Rate reductions lose momentum – Competition and abundant capacity continue to drive premium decreases, although the pace of reduction is slowing. Certain sectors, including healthcare and legal services, are already seeing signs of pricing stabilisation and greater underwriting scrutiny.
2. Claims activity remains elevated – Notifications are on track to exceed previous years, driven by business email compromise, social engineering, third-party provider incidents and privacy breaches. While insurers continue to report profitable results, increased claim frequency is putting pressure on market pricing.
3. AI and geopolitics reshape cyber risk – Threat actors are using AI to make attacks faster, cheaper and more scalable, while geopolitical instability is contributing to heightened cyber activity from state-linked and politically motivated groups. These developments are increasing insurer focus on cyber resilience and accumulation risk.
Market overview
Cyber risk remains a defining feature of the global risk landscape in 2026, driven by its close links to geopolitical developments and rapid technological change. In the UK, the latest Cyber Security Breaches Survey found that 43% of businesses identified a cyber security breach or attack in the previous 12 months, equivalent to approximately 612,000 organisations nationwide. The findings reinforce the extent to which cyber incidents have become a routine business risk rather than an exceptional event, despite continued improvements in cyber security controls and awareness.
Premiums and market drivers
Despite an increasingly volatile risk environment, market conditions remain favourable for insureds, with rate reductions continuing into the second half of 2026. Lloyd’s Q2 2026 Market assessment classified cyber insurance adequacy as ‘marginal’, highlighting continued pressure on and a ‘rapid weakening’ of rate margins.
There are, however, indications that the decline in cyber rates may be starting to slow, following over three years of consistent reductions. Pricing within the US healthcare sector has shown signs of stabilisation in recent months. Additionally, insurer appetite for US law firms has become more selective, driven by an increasingly active and challenging claims environment.
Despite these developments, downward pressure on rates persists on all other industries. Increasing competition from new entrants to the market is likely to prolong the soft market cycle and drive further rate reductions, heightening the risk of inadequate risk pricing and potentially unsustainable underwriting conditions over the longer term.
Notwithstanding continued rate erosion, insurers have generally maintained underwriting profitability. This has been supported by meaningful improvements in insureds’ cybersecurity controls and risk management practices, enhancing their ability to prevent and mitigate attacks. However, recent loss experience suggests that while successful attacks may be less frequent, those that do succeed are increasingly severe and costly.
Year-on-Year Average Premium Per Million Change (2021–2026)
Coverage trends
Coverage continues to evolve in response to both the changing threat landscape and heightened competition among insurers. Key areas of development include:
Cyber Spoilage
Although cyber spoilage coverage has been available for some time, recent large-scale incidents affecting refrigeration and operational technology systems have served as a reminder that cyber events can quickly translate into tangible physical losses, including product spoilage, stock deterioration, and business interruption. These losses highlight a significant and often overlooked insurance gap. As traditional property policies generally exclude cyber-related losses, physical damage, spoilage, stock deterioration, and resulting business interruption arising from a cyber event may fall outside the scope of property coverage.
At the same time, cyber policies have historically been designed to cover digital rather than physical consequences of a cyber event. In response, insurers have developed specialist cyber property damage solutions specifically designed to cover physical damage and financial losses arising from cyber-triggered events. These products can provide protection for exposures such as property damage, spoilage, stock deterioration, and resulting business interruption.
LLMjacking
The growing use of AI has given rise to a new exposure commonly referred to as LLMjacking. This occurs when threat actors compromise an organisation’s credentials or AI environment and use its access to large language models (LLMs) to generate unauthorised processing activity, often resulting in substantial consumption-based charges. In response, many insurers can now provide extensions that cover unexpected costs arising from the malicious misuse of AI resources. While coverage is typically subject to sub-limits, it represents a notable example of the cyber insurance market evolving to address emerging AI-related risks.
Claims and notifications
The number of claims notifications have continued to increase throughout 2026 and, at the end of August, had already exceeded the total number recorded during 2024. The current trends suggest activity will comfortably exceed 2025 by year end.
Some of the most common notification types over the last 12 months include business email compromise, phishing and social engineering attacks. Threat actors are increasingly leveraging trusted communication platforms such as Microsoft Teams and WhatsApp, alongside traditional email-based attacks, to impersonate employees, divert payments, and facilitate fraud.
Third-party provider incidents also remain a significant source of claims notifications, reflecting organisations’ growing reliance on external technology and service providers. Privacy-related events also continue to generate substantial activity, particularly accidental disclosures, confidentiality breaches, and data handling errors.
Law firms remain one of the most frequently affected sectors, experiencing a broad range of incidents including phishing attacks, client fund fraud, privacy breaches and impersonation scams.
We have also seen a notable increase in copyright-related litigation and subsequent claims notifications within the market, driven largely by the unauthorised use of copyrighted music in social media content, digital advertising and marketing campaigns. As organisations expand their online presence and content output, rights holders are taking a more proactive approach to enforcement, creating a growing source of financial risk that is often overlooked by businesses.
Encouragingly, Lockton’s analysis of claims data over the past five years demonstrates that cyber policies respond effectively when claims do occur, with 98.2% of all claims covered by insurers and only a minority of notifications resulting in a coverage declinature. Further review of those declined claims found that the reasons for denial were generally clear and understandable and largely related to losses falling outside the intended scope of cyber insurance coverage.
Examples included claims for patent infringement, which would typically fall under a dedicated Intellectual Property policy, claims arising from false advertising, which are not covered under the multimedia liability provisions of most cyber policies (although coverage may be available under the Lockton proprietary wording), and claims involving theft of funds resulting from social engineering incidents. While cyber policies may provide limited cover for social engineering losses through a sub-limited extension, these exposures are more commonly insured under a dedicated crime policy.
Overall, the findings reinforce the value of cyber insurance as a reliable source of protection for cyber-related losses, with declinatures arising primarily where the claim falls outside the policy’s intended coverage rather than from disputes over valid cyber claims.
Reinsurance dynamics
The cyber reinsurance market remains highly competitive, with ample capacity available. Although the pace of new entrants has slowed, reinsurers continue to demonstrate a strong appetite for cyber business, with newer markets securing positions on established programmes and supporting the growth ambitions of specialist cyber insurers. Pricing remains broadly stable for established buyers, with some risk-adjusted reductions evident on well-performing excess of loss programmes.
Reinsurers are, however, monitoring increasing attritional loss activity and the continued softening of primary market rates, resulting in greater scrutiny of underwriting performance, portfolio composition, and sector concentrations. Aggregation risk, systemic cyber events, and the emergence of AI-enabled threats remain key concerns. Despite this, cyber continues to be viewed as an attractive long-term growth class, supporting ongoing capital deployment.
An evolving threat environment
These trends play out against an evolving cybersecurity landscape. Advances in AI have lowered the barriers to entry for threat actors, enabling attacks to be conducted more cheaply, efficiently, and at greater scale. In late 2025, the first reported autonomous AI-driven cyberattack demonstrated the use of agentic AI not only to assist attackers, but to independently execute elements of the attack lifecycle. This is challenging traditional assumptions around exposure and response timelines. While AI related attacks are not currently excluded within most cyber policies, insureds should expect increasing scrutiny on their cybersecurity controls, particularly their ability to detect, respond to, and remediate emerging threats.
At the same time, geopolitical instability has emerged as a defining feature of the cyber threat landscape. As tensions continue to rise, cyber activity linked to state-sponsored actors and politically motivated groups has increased significantly. Cyber risk monitoring firms have reported heightened levels of distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks, phishing campaigns, and ransomware activity following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East. Cyber policies generally exclude losses arising directly from war between sovereign states. Yet, determining whether a cyberattack constitutes a war-related act is far from straightforward, with state-sponsored operations frequently conducted through proxy groups, criminal organisations, or hacktivists.
Talk to us
The cyber market continues to offer favourable conditions for buyers, despite rising claims activity and an increasingly complex threat landscape. As organisations navigate these evolving risks, ensuring that insurance arrangements remain aligned to both emerging threats and market developments has become increasingly important.
At Lockton, we pride ourselves on our collaborative approach, working closely with our clients to provide comprehensive risk transfer solutions. We utilise our extensive network of insurance providers to match you with the right terms and protection layers for your risk, ensuring your coverage is comprehensive across product lines. In the unfortunate event of cyber-attack against your organisation, our experts are on hand to guide you towards a prompt and complete recovery.
For more information, or for support to quantify your risk and procure insurance, reach out to a member of our Cyber & Technology team.

Carlo Ramodoro
Head of Cyber & Technology | London
M: +44 (0) 7385 415 436

Elizabeth Gurney
Senior Vice President, Cyber & Technology | London
E: elizabeth.gurney@lockton.com
M: +44 207 933 2319
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