Introduction

Climate change is increasingly impacting food and drink (F&D) businesses and critically disrupting their supply chains. Increases in temperature, shifts in rainfall patterns, and elevated surface carbon dioxide concentrations from human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are changing crop yields and shifting their growing range. This will affect the supply of raw materials, challenging food & drink businesses to learn how to manage this risk and limit the impact it can have on their operations.

Coffee is a prime example. A combination of higher-than-average rainfall and temperatures in coffee-producing regions has impacted the harvest in 2024. As a result of the extreme weather, the price per pound (453.592 grams) more than doubled to USD 392 (24 February) from USD 190 a year ago. Experts warn that temperature increases of just 1.5- 2ºC above pre-industrial levels (as targeted by the Paris Agreement) will see highly suitable land for growing coffee reduced by more than half (54%) by the end of the century.

Scientists have also confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on record. This trend seems to be continuing in the early months of 2025. Rising global temperatures are likely to increase the severity and frequency of extreme, unpredictable weather events. This will impact a wide variety of crops, likely creating volatility in supply and price. Businesses need to understand the risks this may pose to their own operations, particularly for core ingredients.