POLITICAL VIOLENCE MARKET UPDATE 2026
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Overview: Market softens despite evolving loss patterns
A softening market for Political Violence (PV) Insurance is a welcome sign for buyers, following a prolonged hard period. An influx of approximately £350m of new capacity via Lloyd’s syndicates and specialist underwriting agencies is driving competition, enabling brokers to market accounts more widely and deliver premium savings to clients. Rates have reduced on average across Political Violence Insurance (PV, -8%), Strikes, Riots and Civil Unrest Insurance (SRCC, -8%), and Sabotage and Terrorism Insurance (S&T, -6%). In certain territories, namely Latin America and South Africa, movements have been even greater; the latter, saw decreases of -20% to -50%, depending on the risk.
Notably, this comes amid heightened geopolitical activity. In the US, terrorism pricing and loss experience remain driven primarily by isolated violent incidents rather than conventional war exposure. But underwriters across the wider market are keen to diversify their portfolios, and are showing broad appetite across pricing and risk categories – despite wars in Israel, Ukraine, and political instability across Africa. Decreasing reinsurance costs are applying further downward momentum, and creating newfound flexibility for insurers.
These trends reflect a shift in loss patterns. While the years prior to 2022 saw a high volume of claims relating to civil unrest, the market has since been dominated by larger-scale incidents of political violence – forcing insurers to adapt their strategies. For buyers, however, this introduces complexity; S&T policies are now unlikely to offer indemnity against some of the most common threats of the last three-to-five years. This being the case, more buyers may gravitate towards the broader scope of Political Violence cover.
Key risk trends:
1. Europe grapples with drone incursions
There has been an uptick in Russian drone sightings in EU airspace in recent months, with incursions reported in at least 10 member states. If airports or airspaces need to be closed, such incidents can disrupt logistics, supply chains, and business travel. There are also physical damage risks from direct drone attacks, or from falling debris. Relatedly, an explosion on a Polish railway line in November 2025 is one of many recent incidents across Europe attributed to acts of Russian sabotage.
2. Widespread national and regional conflict
A series of conflicts across the globe are undermining business operations. In June, Heineken announced that it had lost operational control of its facilities within conflict-afflicted areas of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, after they were targeted by armed rebels. The beverages firm withdrew staff and has suspended operations until it is safe to reopen. The loss to the market has been estimated at $75m. Increasing cartel activity in Mexico, and political instability in Colombia are both increasing the cost of doing business in those regions, and disrupting global supply chains. In the latter, parliamentary elections scheduled for March are likely to stoke further tensions.
3. Middle East remains a hotspot
In late December, anti-government protests swept Iran in response to the country's deepening economic crisis. The ensuing crackdown resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of protesters and has led, in recent weeks, to a concentration of US naval and airpower within the region, raising the prospect of military action. Meanwhile, in Gaza, the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has failed to prevent further strikes. Businesses with operations in the region face the high possibility of sudden disruption. In June 2025, an Iranian missile strike hit a refinery belonging to the Bazan Group, with estimated losses of $180m – the largest loss to the market in recent years.
4. Protest activity on the rise
The Israel-Gaza conflict, immigration, and free speech are among the issues driving protests and social unrest across the globe. The US, UK, and Europe have been prominent sites of protest, but unrest has been felt in countries including Argentina, Indonesia, and beyond. While many protests are peaceful, businesses face a growing threat of damage and disruption, with sectors such as retail and hospitality particularly exposed.
5. Ongoing threat of targeted attacks
Recent years have seen a series of targeted attacks across different jurisdictions, including terrorism and active assailant (AA) events. On 14 December 2025, a terrorist attack took place at a Hannukah event on Sydney’s Bondi Beach, claiming the lives of 15 people. A few hours earlier, an active shooter incident at Brown University, Rhode Island, left two people dead and nine others wounded. More recently, a shooting at a high school in British Colombia, Canada, resulted in six deaths, including the shooter. S&T policies typically require a political, religious, or ideological motivation, which is not always triggered in AA events. This has led to clients opting to enhance their coverages with AA policies.
6. TRIA reauthorisation nears
In the US, hearings are underway to discuss the reauthorization of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) beyond its current December 2027 expiration date. The relevant bill cleared the House Financial Services Committee in late January and will now move to the House of Representatives for final passage. If reauthorised, proposed amendments under discussion include an increase in the Program Trigger from USD 5 million to USD 25 million, alongside potential changes to insurer deductibles, trigger thresholds, and the scope of risks covered. While the final form of any authorisation remains uncertain, such changes could have implications for terrorism insurance buyers, particularly in relation to sub-threshold or lower-severity events that may not meet federal certification criteria. Against this backdrop, insureds may wish to review their existing risk transfer arrangements to ensure continued alignment with evolving risk profiles and the operation of the federal backstop.
Growing appetite for conflict-zone risks
In June 2025, twelve-day tensions between Iran and Israel spiked rates for PV Insurance, with many insurers readjusting their assessment of the threat to businesses. Despite this, the cost of cover within Israel continues to decline. This was bolstered by the announcement, on 3 October 2025, of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, although any truce remains fragile – with Israeli attacks on Gaza ongoing at the time of writing. Nevertheless, businesses coming to the market are now likely to find cover more affordable than was the case six or 12 months ago. Further US investment into Israel is likely to drive future insurer confidence.
Ultimately, however, the improving outlook for businesses within Israel is less the result of internal factors, and more the result of an improving outlook across the globe. In recent years, the market has enjoyed an influx of capacity, along with the introduction of innovative risk transfer solutions – factors which continue to exert downward pressure. Underwriters are also showing an improved appetite to write business in other challenging territories, namely Ukraine.
In focus: A rising tide of unrest
Public discontent across a range of issues is driving a febrile political atmosphere across the world. In the US, President Trump’s mass deportation of immigrants has been met with regular large-scale protests. US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids have been a frequent trigger for demonstrations, including the two shootings of Renée Good and Alex Pretti, both in Minnesota. Although companies themselves may not be the target of protest, infrastructure and premises that coincide with protest routes face a heightened risk. Large scale protest activity can also tie up local police resources, leaving businesses further exposed. Evidence of this came in June 2025, when Adidas and Apple stores in Los Angeles were among those looted by masked criminals, along with others in the city’s downtown area. The thefts took place at the same time as a nearby protest.
Likewise, the UK and Europe saw regular pro-Palestine protests throughout 2025, with varying implications for businesses. In September, trade unions in Italy staged a nationwide strike, shutting down ports, trains, and roads. While police are typically notified in advance of such protests, managing such events is a complex task. In the same month, up to 150,000 people marched through London for a ‘Unite the Kingdom’ march. The size of the protest exceeded initial estimates, leading to dense crowds and a tricky containment effort. Counter protests further complicate the picture.
Unrest is not confined to the West, however. Countries including Argentina, Nepal, Indonesia, Peru, and Morocco have seen significant protests over the last year. Underlying triggers include inequality, economic uncertainty, and corruption, with protestors frequently calling for political reform. Social media platforms play an increasingly vital role, enabling activist organisations to broadcast their message widely and mobile large numbers of people, often at short notice.
When it comes to preparation, businesses should draw upon tried-and-tested crisis management strategies to facilitate timely decision making. Assessing vulnerabilities before an event, identifying response leaders, and liaising closely with local authorities are key. Physical barriers and security systems can act as a further deterrent against protestors intent on causing damage.
Talk to us
The complexity of today’s threat landscape means that no two businesses face the same exposures. In a market defined by evolving and intensifying geopolitical risks, our specialists work with your teams to understand your vulnerabilities, and tailor insurance solutions to meet your needs. So, whether you’re operating in conflict zones, caught up in civil unrest, or facing down new and emerging threats, your business can move forward with confidence.
For more information, reach out to a member of our team:
Parmida Djalilvand
Senior Vice President l U.S. Crisis Management Lead
E: parmida.djalilvand@lockton.com
M: +1 (646) 983 0486